Thinning the Herd: What Survives in a Tariff-Driven Landscape

Thinning the Herd: What Survives in a Tariff-Driven Landscape

As the August 1st tariff deadline passed, the United States followed through with a series of trade policy changes that sent fresh shockwaves through the global economy.

While some trading partners managed to negotiate more favourable terms, others were hit harder. Canada saw tariffs rise from 25 to 35 percent, and Brazil faced a steep 50 percent rate on most imports. The message is becoming clearer by the day: tariffs are no longer temporary news. They are now a permanent part of global trade.

These pressures do not stop at the border. As costs rise, retailers are sharpening their focus on what stays and what goes. Products that cannot justify their price or margin are being cut. The herd is thinning.

So, what does it take for a consumer goods brand to stay in the game?

In this blog, we will unpack what it means to survive in a tariff-driven retail environment. It is no longer about being the cheapest option on the shelf. It is about being the most relevant, the most efficient, and the easiest to sell.

Let’s get into it.

Tariffs as a Filter, Not a Barrier

Tariffs are more than just added taxes at the border; they are a reality check for your product portfolio. When margins tighten, tariffs shine a light on what has been quietly underperforming. They expose the inefficiencies that often go unnoticed in periods of growth: inflated pricing structures, oversized packaging, and SKUs that should have been retired years ago.

While no business welcomes tariff hikes, they serve an important function. They force companies to evaluate which products truly deserve shelf space. In this way, tariffs act as a filter, not a barrier. They separate the brands with tight commercial discipline from those coasting on novelty or outdated legacy.

The pressure intensifies as these added costs cascade down the supply chain. Retail buyers begin scrutinising products not just on sales performance, but on their ability to carry their weight across the value chain. SKUs that lack margin resilience, clear positioning, or logistical efficiency quickly fall out of favour.

For exporters, this is the moment of truth. If your margins can’t absorb the tariff hike, or if your price point becomes indefensible under the new landed cost, your global expansion plan may falter before it even begins. Tariffs don’t just increase costs; they separate the commercially fit from the expendable.

What a ‘Fit for Purpose’ Brand Looks Like Now

If tariffs act as a filter, then the question for exporters is simple: what kind of brand makes it through?

The first marker of resilience is margin structure. In today’s climate, it is no longer enough just to have an attractive retail price. Your unit economics need to be robust, strong enough to absorb the additional pressures of duty hikes, freight surcharges, and currency swings without collapsing under the weight. If your pricing can’t stretch, your product won’t survive.

The second is logistics. Packaging, once an afterthought, has become a critical part of the commercial conversation. Is your product optimised for pallet and container efficiency? Are you using lightweight, durable materials? Have you reduced dimensional weight to avoid inflated freight costs? As supply chain pressures continue to build, brands must find practical and safe ways to reduce overhead, because every gram, every centimetre, and every extra layer of packaging now comes with added costs.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, is differentiation. In a tariff-driven market, products that lack a clear point of distinction are often the first to be delisted. A “me too” item with little more than a discount to offer won’t cut it. Buyers are looking for products that bring unique value, not just functional utility, but a compelling reason to believe. If your product cannot meet a specific need, express a clear story, or stand apart from what is already on the shelf, it will be replaced by something that can.

The bottom line? A fit-for-purpose brand today earns its place through intent, not by default. It aligns its cost structure, supply chain, and brand narrative to be relevant, not just present.

Distribution Darwinism: Why Only The Most Essential SKUs Survive

As tariffs tighten their grip on margins, distributors are being forced to make tough calls. In many markets, they are under direct pressure to rationalise their portfolios, in some cases, cutting their product range by up to 30 percent just to stay competitive.

The products that stay? They are not always the most premium or innovative, but they are the most necessary. These are the SKUs that turn over quickly, generate healthy margins, and create minimal friction in logistics, compliance, or sell-through. In other words: fast, profitable, and low drama.

If your product is a slow mover, a “me too” variant, or carries added costs or operational red tape, your chances of survival drop sharply. Distributors no longer have capacity for nice-to-haves. They need commercial justification, and fast.

That’s why brands today are in a constant battle for shelf space. If your distributor cannot confidently defend your SKU in their next range review, your listing is already on borrowed time.

Conclusion: How to Stay in the Herd

In today’s tariff-driven market, survival is not a given. It is earned.

The brands that endure are not the cheapest or the loudest; they are the most disciplined. They have pricing structures that can take a hit, product lines that justify their place, and stories that hold up under scrutiny.

So how can your brand earn its spot?

Start by pressure-testing your pricing. Could your margins hold if tariffs rose again?

Then examine your range. If a product doesn’t move quickly or add clear value, trim it before your distributor does.

Make your pricing make sense, not just logically, but emotionally.

And finally, stop aiming for “good enough.” Be the product that buyers fight to keep when they are told to cut thirty percent.
Because the herd is thinning. And if you want to stay in it, you need more than just good product; you need a commercial strategy that makes you stand out.

Want to make your brand impossible to cut?

I’m here to help. With 30 years of hands-on experience working with brands and distributors around the world, I know what gets products listed and what gets them dropped.

If you’re ready to sharpen your strategy and stay in the game, simply book a discovery call with me here.

Kick-start your international expansion today

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Picture of Justin Hadinoto

Justin Hadinoto

Justin is an international business consultant with a background in marketing and human resource management. With a background in workplace compensation and Occupational Health and Safety, he has also worked at Deloitte, integrating Generative AI into operations—demonstrating strong analytical and stakeholder engagement skills. Having lived in Singapore, Indonesia, and Australia, Justin has cultivated a strong ability to navigate cross-cultural interactions. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce with distinction and is fluent in Chinese, Bahasa Indonesia, and English, allowing him to craft tailored marketing content for diverse audiences.

Picture of Justin Hadinoto

Justin Hadinoto

Justin is an international business consultant with a background in marketing and human resource management. With a background in workplace compensation and Occupational Health and Safety, he has also worked at Deloitte, integrating Generative AI into operations—demonstrating strong analytical and stakeholder engagement skills. Having lived in Singapore, Indonesia, and Australia, Justin has cultivated a strong ability to navigate cross-cultural interactions. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce with distinction and is fluent in Chinese, Bahasa Indonesia, and English, allowing him to craft tailored marketing content for diverse audiences.6

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