Just when you thought Trump tariffs were old news, they’re back in the headlines.
Last week, two colleagues told me that “no one was talking about tariffs anymore” … turns out they spoke too soon.
If you’ve been following the story, you’ll recall that on 2 April, the President issued Executive Order 14257, titled “Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits.” The order imposed a universal 10% tariff on all imports into the United States and introduced higher, country-specific tariffs—ranging from 11% to 50%—on 86 trading partners.
On 9 April, President Trump paused most of the country-specific tariffs for 90 days amid global market turmoil, but left the 10% blanket tariff in place. At the same time, he raised tariffs on Chinese imports from 104% to 145%.
Shortly after, on 13 April, exemptions were granted for smartphones, computers and electronics—a nod to heavy lobbying from tech firms. Then on 22 April, the administration launched national security investigations into pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports under Section 232 of the Trade Act.
By early May, the tariff hoo-ha seemed to be blowing over. On 9 May, Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer struck a modest bilateral deal, keeping the 10% universal tariff but relaxing restrictions on autos and agriculture. On 12–13 May, the US and China agreed to a 90-day truce: Washington reduced tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%, and Beijing lowered its retaliatory duties to 10%. Meanwhile, tariffs on EU imports were postponed until 9 July—creating space for further negotiation.
But that’s not the end of the story.
The Legal Battle and Economic Fallout
Last Wednesday, the US Court of International Trade blocked most of Trump’s tariffs, finding the President had exceeded his authority by imposing blanket duties. The next day, the Court of Appeals granted a temporary stay on that decision, giving plaintiffs until 5 June and the administration until 9 June to respond.
On Friday, Trump announced that tariffs on steel and aluminium imports would double—from 25% to 50%—starting this Wednesday. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also confirmed the President has no plans to extend the pause on his global tariff regime.
Concerns about the economic fallout from the tariffs escalated over the weekend. Trump accused China of breaching the 90-day truce, fuelling fears of renewed conflict. On Monday, the dollar slumped to a three-year low against sterling, as the ISM manufacturing index recorded a third straight month of decline, falling to 48.5—below the 50 mark that signals contraction.
American manufacturers are feeling the squeeze. “Uncertainty due to the recent tariffs continues to weigh on profitability and service,” one paper producer reported. “An unresolved [trade deal with] China will result in empty shelves at retail for many do-it-yourself and professional goods.” A chemicals company noted: “Most suppliers are passing through tariffs at full value to us.”
Many US businesses are struggling to keep up with the pace of policy reversals. Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, issued a stark warning: “If the United States and China were to disengage completely in another blitz of escalating tariffs, it would be a really big deal for the global economy. Demand for industrial commodities would plummet. Supply chains spanning multiple borders would shut down.”
Where is this story heading? No one really knows p>
The legal battle is just beginning, the economic consequences are mounting, and the administration’s strategy remains in flux.<p>
Keep an eye out for our upcoming piece on US–China relations in light of this tariff turmoil. The next chapter is already being written.
