Iran is back in the headlines this week, as Tehran holds a state funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
But for business leaders, the real story is not the funeral. It is what is happening at sea.
Because several weeks after the ceasefire was signed, the Strait of Hormuz is still not operating normally.
This is one of the most important shipping chokepoints in the world. Oil, gas, fertiliser, agricultural products, industrial inputs and manufactured goods all move through, or are affected by, this narrow stretch of water.
At the moment, around 43 ships are passing through the Strait each day. That is only about half of normal pre-war levels. And there are still an estimated 380 vessels waiting or stalled in clusters on both sides of the chokepoint.
Saudi Arabia has ramped up crude exports and is clearing some of its backlog, and agricultural shipping is starting to improve.
But LNG and fertiliser shipments remain largely at a standstill.
That matters for global business because the disruption is spreading well beyond energy markets. It is pushing up freight and insurance costs, creating food and fertiliser pressure, complicating manufacturing supply chains, and forcing companies to tie up more working capital in stock, delays and contingency planning.
There is also a fight over who controls safe passage.
Iran is pushing ships through its approved channel and warning that vessels which bypass its routes may not be guaranteed safe passage.
At the same time, an alternative route closer to Oman has emerged, with the UK and France working with Oman to help secure those waters.
So shipping companies are now making daily calculations about risk, route, insurance, escort, delay and cost.
Some tankers are reportedly turning off tracking systems, while others are moving under naval escort.
And commercial operators are facing steep war-risk premiums after recent attacks on neutral vessels.
There is also a human cost. Thousands of seafarers remain stranded inside the high-risk zone while evacuation plans wait for stronger security guarantees.
So the message for business is simple.
Do not mistake a ceasefire for stability.
Even if oil prices soften, the business impact does not disappear.
Freight stays expensive.
Insurance stays elevated.
Delivery windows stay unreliable.
Input costs remain exposed.
And customers already under pressure become harder to serve profitably.
For CEOs, exporters, importers and manufacturers, this is the moment to check your exposure in the actual supply chain, not just at board-paper level. Revisit your freight assumptions, supplier lead times, insurance cover, inventory position and margins before making promises based on normal conditions.
Because the war may have paused.
But the commercial risk is still moving through the global economy.
